Why one of Africa’s largest regional industrial ecosystems weakened—and what its collapse reveals about systems, coordination, and economic structure. There was a period when Northern Nigeria possessed one of the most important industrial ecosystems in West Africa. Kaduna was a manufacturing center. Kano was a commercial and textile powerhouse. Large industrial clusters supported: Factories employed […]
Industrial Decline in Northern Nigeria Read More »
Why Nigeria’s next wave of industrial productivity may come from reallocating neglected assets rather than creating entirely new ones. Across Nigeria are the remnants of failed companies: Most people see decay. Allocators see dormant productive capacity. The death of an organization does not necessarily mean the death of its assets. In many cases, infrastructure outlives
How to Repurpose the Infrastructure, Land, and Labour of Failed Companies in Nigeria Read More »
Why this is not merely a power investment—but a structural response to Nigeria’s coordination failure problem. When Aliko Dangote announced plans to invest in up to 20,000MW of power generation, the number itself attracted attention. But the deeper significance lies elsewhere. This is not simply an energy story. It is a systems story. It represents
Dangote’s 20,000MW Bet: The Most Important Private Infrastructure Signal in Nigeria Read More »
The NNPCL refinery cycle is not a funding problem. It is a structural problem that capital alone cannot fix. Nigeria has spent billions attempting to revive its state-owned refineries. Most recently, approximately $2.39 billion was deployed toward rehabilitation. One refinery reportedly restarted operations, only to shut down again within months. Now, a new Memorandum of
Capital Without Structure: Why Nigeria Keeps Funding Systems That Cannot Work Read More »
Coordination Failure: Why Rational Decisions Produce System-Wide Failure Why systems break when individuals act rationally—but not collectively. Not every failed system is filled with foolish people. Sometimes, everyone is acting rationally. The farmer refuses to invest because there is no guaranteed buyer. The processor refuses to build capacity because supply is fragmented. The bank refuses
Coordination Failure: Why Rational Decisions Produce System-Wide Failure Read More »
Why scale, capital, and technical competence do not guarantee success—and how structure still determines outcome. This post builds on the Allocator Lens model → read it here. The Dangote Refinery is one of the most ambitious industrial projects in Africa. It represents scale, private capital, technical capability, and a response to a long-standing structural gap
Why Dangote Refinery Might Still Struggle (Despite Everything) Read More »
