institutional failure

Dangote’s 20,000MW Bet: The Most Important Private Infrastructure Signal in Nigeria

Leave a Comment / Capital Allocation & Design /

Why this is not merely a power investment—but a structural response to Nigeria’s coordination failure problem. When Aliko Dangote announced plans to invest in up to 20,000MW of power generation, the number itself attracted attention. But the deeper significance lies elsewhere. This is not simply an energy story. It is a systems story. It represents […]

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The Prisoner’s Dilemma in Nigeria’s Power Sector

Leave a Comment / Systems & Infratructure /

Why individually rational behavior keeps producing system-wide electricity failure. Nigeria’s power sector is often discussed as a technical problem. The proposed solutions usually focus on: These matter. But they do not fully explain why the system continues to underperform despite repeated reforms, billions in investment, and decades of restructuring. The deeper issue is strategic. Nigeria’s

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Coordination Failure: Why Rational Decisions Produce System-Wide Failure

Leave a Comment / Systems & Infratructure /

Coordination Failure: Why Rational Decisions Produce System-Wide Failure Why systems break when individuals act rationally—but not collectively. Not every failed system is filled with foolish people. Sometimes, everyone is acting rationally. The farmer refuses to invest because there is no guaranteed buyer. The processor refuses to build capacity because supply is fragmented. The bank refuses

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The Exit Problem: Why Failing Systems Don’t Die

Leave a Comment / Failure Mechanics /

The Exit Problem: Why Failing Systems Don’t Die Why systems that cannot fail properly often cannot improve—and how blocked exit turns failure into permanence. Not every failed system collapses. Some continue. They continue to receive funding. They continue to employ people. They continue to issue reports, announce reforms, appoint new boards, launch recovery plans, and

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