A game theory view of why fragile systems produce distrust, defensive behavior, and collective failure. Many failing systems share a common characteristic: No one trusts the system enough to cooperate fully. Businesses delay payments. Consumers avoid compliance. Governments override market signals. Investors demand short-term returns. Employees prioritize extraction over long-term performance. Everyone becomes defensive. At […]
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The NNPCL refinery cycle is not a funding problem. It is a structural problem that capital alone cannot fix. Nigeria has spent billions attempting to revive its state-owned refineries. Most recently, approximately $2.39 billion was deployed toward rehabilitation. One refinery reportedly restarted operations, only to shut down again within months. Now, a new Memorandum of
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The Exit Problem: Why Failing Systems Don’t Die Why systems that cannot fail properly often cannot improve—and how blocked exit turns failure into permanence. Not every failed system collapses. Some continue. They continue to receive funding. They continue to employ people. They continue to issue reports, announce reforms, appoint new boards, launch recovery plans, and
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Why sound ideas on paper often collapse when exposed to real-world systems. Many public policies begin with good intentions. Governments commission experts. Consultants prepare reports. Economic models are built. Frameworks are announced. Targets are established. Yet despite this, many policies produce disappointing outcomes. Infrastructure projects underperform. Industrial programmes stall. Reforms lose momentum. Institutions fail to
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